Off topic, again...Will free content mean the end of authoring?

I came across this post by Doug Johnson on the Blue Skunk Blog. It concerns the idea that as content online becomes easier to search, its economic value will approach zero. I, too, have spent some time pondering this. Wondering if indeed, writing as a profession, as opposed to a hobby, is endangered in much the same way that librarianship seems to be endangered. Just like librarians, there are good writers, and bad, and you can definitely tell when you have a quality specimen. However, as more and more goes online, people seem to care less and less for quality. Here is a different prediction, based on historical analysis:

When printing first came along, people self published. If a book sold, either through subscriptions or book sellers, which by the way were also often publishers, then it might be picked up for an additional print run. Rights to a manuscript were managed by the authors who might be published by several different houses depending on the edition and popularity of the book. Once it became evident that books sold, and that some books sold a bunch, publishers worked to consolidate and developed the business model that we are now working with. I see a parallel with the internet today. Right now, people are "self publishing." Even though this may initially drive the price of good writing down to approaching zero, I submit that quality will win out. It did in print publishing. Higher quality and popular items sold more, and were therefore more prolific and became profitable. Eventually, there will arise a new business model for creative work that will allow authors to earn money from their work. I believe that right now we are in the transition period from self publishing to a new Internet publishing model, because believe me, if there is money to be made, someone will figure out a way to make it. This doesn't mean that self publishing online will vanish, there have been vanity presses for some time, but it may not get the respect it currently enjoys. Of course, I could be wrong, but I think that even though people will write because they enjoy it, they still have to eat. I also think that there is such a huge difference between good writing and mediocre writing that people will eventually see it and choose more carefully how they spend their time. It has happened before.

**Most of the historical facts used here (and I did not give specifics) may be found in The Reading Nation in the Romantic Period by William St. Clair You can definitely read more about 18th century publishing there.